$WTIC (Oil -Light Crude - Continuous Contract (EOD)) INDEX

[setravis]

Crude Prices Decline As US Retail Sales Release Dissapoints
On Wednesday May 13, 2009, 5:19 pm EDT

Despite a large drop in crude inventories, crude prices declined for the session as global equities sputtered throughout the day. Crude prices have benefited in the past months from an increase in investor risk appetite, but today was the source of weakness as prices fell despite bullish supply data.



Commodities - Energy

Crude Prices Decline As US Retail Sales Release Disappoints

Crude Oil (WTI)                   $57.800               -$1.050          -1.78%

Despite a large drop in crude inventories, crude prices declined for the session as global equities sputtered throughout the day. Crude prices have benefitted in the past months from an increase in investor risk appetite, but today was the source of weakness as prices fell despite bullish supply data. Even with the unexpected drop in supplies, crude fundamentals remain stacked against current prices. In the face of several weeks of negative fundamental data, crude prices still gained on market optimism. Now that hopes of a near-term economic rebound are being challenged further by releases, crude prices will likely cave in to those fundamentals. In the way of data, US housing figures continue to disappoint while today is Retail Sales report (declining 0.4%) suggests sharper contraction in consumer spending than expected; all factors that would place further downward pressure on crude prices. Given the interconnected nature of markets, investors selling positions to meet margin calls today also exacerbated price declines. As it stands, fundamental pressures that were unrequited for the past few months will likely begin to push prices lower. Barring a return to equity rallies, expect prices to decline in the near to medium term.

[setravis]

Crude Oil

West Texas Crude continues in a strong primary up-trend, with a short retracement respecting the latest support level at $55. The target for the advance is $65, calculated as 55 + [ 55 - 45 ]. Reversal below the rising (green) trendline is not expected, but would warn that the up-trend is weakening.

[setravis]

Oil hits six-month high before holiday weekend
Oil hits six-month high, gasoline continues toward $2.40 a gallon before the holiday
On Wednesday May 20, 2009, 3:44 pm EDT


NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices hit a six-month high Wednesday, climbing above $62 a barrel after a government report showed a drop in U.S. oil supplies for the second straight week. Benchmark crude for July delivery rose $1.94 to settle at $62.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before noon. Crude prices jumped to $62.14 earlier in the day, the highest price for crude since Nov. 11.

In London, Brent prices increased $1.67 settle at $60.59 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Crude stockpiles dropped by 2.1 million barrels for the week ended May 15, according to Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. Gasoline inventories dropped by 4.3 million barrels.

That was a bigger decline than analysts had expected, especially for gasoline.

One of the main drivers this year for energy prices has been the enormous amount of crude and gasoline in storage. Recently, benchmark crude prices also have been heavily influenced by the stock market and the strength of the dollar.

A number of other issues, from fires at refineries, to falling inventories, to the first big driving holiday of the year, are sending gas prices upward.

Retail gasoline prices have risen every day this month.

"If you mix that with fires at refineries this week, and the optimism that's in the equities markets right now, you have the ingredients for a rally" in energy prices, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service.

Still, oil supplies remain at 19-year highs as Americans cut back on spending. For weeks, government data has shown that the country's consumption of petroleum products has dropped to its lowest levels in a decade.

At the pump, gas prices added two cents overnight to a new national average of over $2.334 a gallon Wednesday, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas is 27.6 cents a gallon more expensive than a month ago, but it's $1.466 a gallon cheaper than last year.

Kloza said he expects gas prices to continue to climb near $2.40 just before Memorial Day weekend as a drop in refinery activity forces pump prices higher.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for June delivery fell less than a penny to settle at $1.8095 a gallon and heating oil rose 5.45 cents to settle at $1.5411 a gallon. Natural gas for June delivery added 6.8 cents to settle at $4.098 per 1,000 cubic feet.

[setravis]

Running into resistance @ the 200-day MA.......

Oil drops below $61 as big rally pauses
Oil prices fall from six-month high as a slow economic recover comes into focus
On Thursday May 21, 2009, 3:31 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- Energy prices tumbled Thursday after the Federal Reserve predicted that even if the worst of the recession is over, the economy will continue to shrink this year.

Benchmark crude for July delivery fell 99 cents to settle at $61.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices at one point had fallen to a penny within $60. In London, Brent prices fell 66 cents to settle at $59.93 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

The ailing economy has pushed energy prices down because consumers and businesses have reduced spending, whether it's on commuting to work or producing goods.

On Thursday, energy prices fell further after the Labor Department reported that there are nearly 6.7 million people filing for unemployment benefits, the highest total on records dating to 1967.

Major industries that rely on natural gas have pulled back and in addition to layoffs, have idled or shuttered factories.

That has led to a steep drop off in natural gas prices and on Thursday, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said that last week natural gas in underground storage far exceeded the five-year average. Analysts had expected growth, but not as much as the government reported.

Prices for natural gas on Nymex tumbled 7.5 percent.

That can be good news for consumers, because utilities use a lot of natural gas, meaning bills could come down.

Meanwhile, renewed clashes between government troops and militants in Nigeria, part of a long-standing dispute over the distribution of oil revenues from the Niger Delta, continued to support oil prices.

According to JBC Energy, the situation in the Niger Delta "appears to be worsening." JBC estimated that output in Africa's largest crude exporter was down 900,000 barrels a day since the escalation of militant activity in the summer of 2005.

Nigeria is the fifth largest exporter of oil to the United States and problems there can affect energy prices here.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for June delivery fell less than a penny to settle at $1.7997 a gallon and heating oil dropped 1.17 cents to settle at $1.5411 a gallon. Natural gas for June delivery slid 37.2 cents to settle at $3.726 per 1,000 cubic feet.

[setravis]

Oil prices strike new high for 2009
Extended rally continues for oil; gas and oil prices hit new high for 2009

Oil rise boosts US energy stocks
June 10 2009

US stocks rose on Wednesday morning as Wall Street remained focused on inflation indicators, with commodity prices continuing to rise and the dollar slipping further.

The price of oil briefly topped $71 for the first time since October last year, but then fell back. By mid-morning US crude was up $0.97 at $70.98.

This boosted energy stocks, including Chevron, which gained 1.8 per cent to $71.43 and ConocoPhillips, which picked up 1.9 per cent to $46.40.

Other commodities also continued the week’s gains, with rising metals prices driving shares in Alcoa, the aluminium producer, which rose 3.1 per cent to $11.50 and Freeport McMoRan, the copper miner, which advanced 2.6 per cent to $60.47.

Materials ane energy stocks drove the benchmark S&P 500 index higher, and after half an hour of trade, it was 0.4 per cent up at 946.44. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6 per cent to 8,812.26 but the Nasdaq Composite index fell 0.2 per cent to 1,856.38.

Home Depot boosted the consumer sector after it said profits may be flat this year, having previously forecast a 7 per cent decline. The company reaffirmed its sales targets, but said profit margins could be slightly higher. Its shares lifted 1.9 per cent to $24.80.

The news also helped rival home improvement retailer Lowe’s find gains, picking up 0.9 per cent to $20.65.

Brown-Forman added to the optimism on consumer spending after it reported better results than expected. The company, which owns the Jack Daniels and Southern Comfort drink brands, saw sales fall less than analysts had predicted and its shares climbed 2.8 per cent to $46.55.

Banking stocks were sluggish on the growing signs of inflation and economic data showing mortgage applications fell over 7 per cent last week.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which both said on Tuesday that they had been granted permission to repay money from the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, saw their price targets lifted at JPMorgan, which cited the strength of the companies’ fixed income units.

But shares in both companies fell after Lloyd Bankfein, Goldman’s chief executive, said the current upturn in global markets did not signal the end of the recession, saying it would be long and protracted. Shares in Goldman lost 0.9 per cent to $147.91 while Morgan Stanley fell 2.4 per cent to $30.25.

Citigroup finally got its long awaited $58bn stock swap under way, the day after the board met Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Desposit Insurance Corporation, in an effort to diffuse growing tensions between the two parties. Even though Ms Bair did not address the position of Vikram Pandit, the chief executive whom the regulator is pushing to replace, people close to the matter said the meeting had a conciliatory tone. The shares rose 4.7 per cent to $3.57.

Meanwhile Ameriprise became the latest in a long line of financial companies to announce it would issue shares in order to raise further capital. The financial services company said it might use the money to make acquisitions, although it didn’t name specific targets. Its shares fell 9.2 per cent to $25.79.

Elsewhere, shares in real estate broker CB Richard Ellis spiked 15.5 per cent to $9.40 after the company said it will raise $400m by selling bonds and a further $100m by selling shares to Paulson & Co, the hedge fund. The company also said it may sell up to $50m more in equity and use the money to pay off debt.

European stocks were higher early on Wall Street. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index was up 1.7 per cent at 884.31. Asian equity markets closed mainly up, led by the Nikkei 225 average, which closed 2.1 per cent higher at 9,991.49

Bond yields were generally up, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rising 2 basis point to 3.876 per cent although that on the two-year note fell 1bp to 1.294 per cent.

The dollar was weaker against major currencies early in New York, losing 0.7 per cent against the pound to $1.64.

Gold was trading $0.01 higher at $954.79 per troy ounce.

[setravis]

Crude Oil
West Texas Crude continues a strong primary advance, warning of rising inflation. Short retracement back to $65 warns of an accelerating up-trend — normally followed by a sharp correction.

[setravis]

Hole-In-The-Wall Reversal For Crude
Crude Oil
West Texas Crude warns of a secondary correction, with a gap below the rising trendline — sometimes called a hole-in-the-wall reversal. The target of $63 is calculated as 73 - [ 55 - 45 ].

[setravis]

Crude Oil...
Brent Crude broke downwards from its rising trend channel, warning of a secondary correction. Reversal above $70 is unlikely, but would indicate a false signal — and test of the upper trend channel. The primary up-trend remains, with support at $50.

[setravis]

Falling Dollar & Inventories Lift Crude

Crude Oil
Crude oil and commodities prices rallied sharply, but remain in a secondary correction. Brent crude breakout above $67/barrel would indicate that the correction is weakening, while respect of resistance would signal another down-swing. The primary trend remains upward — assisting precious metal prices as inflation fears rise.

[setravis]

US crude oil inventories are declining as consumption edges upwards while imports ease — increasing upward pressure on crude prices.

[Carlos Júlio]

Hi traders.
My last update Crude 24-11-2009
Cheers!!

[setravis]

Crude Oil...
Crude is headed for a test of primary support at $70. Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of further weakness. Failure of support would offer a target of $60/barrel.
Target calculation: 70 - ( 80 - 70 ) = 60

[setravis]

Oil falls below $74 as global stock markets slump
Oil falls below $74 a barrel as Asian markets follow US stocks down

Alex Kennedy, Associated Press Writer, On Tuesday August 31, 2010, 1:01 am
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices fell below $74 a barrel Tuesday in Asia, extending losses from the previous session as global stock markets slump after a disappointing U.S. consumer spending number.

Benchmark crude for October delivery was down 71 cents to $73.99 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost 47 cents to settle at $74.70 on Monday.

Oil traders have been following closely global stock markets as a barometer of overall investor sentiment. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 1.4 percent Monday after the Commerce Department said consumer spending in the U.S. rose just 0.4 percent in July.

Most major Asia stock markets also fell Tuesday, led by a 2.9 percent plunge in Japan's Nikkei 225 index.

"Oil continues to spend much of its time trailing the stock market," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a report. "Bearish underlying fundamentals make it extremely easy for oil to drift lower in response to weakening equities."

Investors will be looking to August employment data for clues about the strength of the U.S. economy.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, heating oil fell 1.02 cent to $2.015 a gallon and gasoline slid 0.31 cent to $1.931 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery rose 1.3 cents to $3.825 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Brent crude was down 63 cents at $75.97 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange.

[setravis]

Today's Market Focus.......

•   December 10-year T-notes this morning are trading down -13.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices yesterday moved higher for a second day and closed up +11 ticks at 125-200. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in the Aug Chicago purchasing managers index which fell to a 9-month low (-5.6 to 56.7 versus expectations of -5.3 to 57.0), (2) the prediction from PIMCO, the manager of the world's biggest bond-fund, that the Fed's action to boost the economy are insufficient, given a "frozen" housing market, slow growth, high unemployment and significant debt, (3) the Aug 10 FOMC meeting minutes in which policy makers said they saw "increased downside risks to the outlook for both growth and inflation" and voiced concern that further shocks would cause "significant slowing in growth," and (4) month-end buying of Treasuries by hedge funds and portfolio managers who need to buy newly issued Treasuries (i.e., Aug refunding o f 10-year T-notes) in order to rebalance their portfolios to match changes in bond indexes with which they are benchmarked. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Jun S&P Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index (+0.3% m/m and +4.2% y/y versus expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.6% y/y), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Aug US consumer confidence (+2.5 to 53.5 versus expectations of +0.3 to 50.7), and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market rallied.

•   The dollar index this morning is weaker and posted a 1-1/2 week low in overnight trade with the dollar/yen -0.16 yen and the euro/dollar +1.24 cents. The dollar index yesterday finished slightly higher. Bullish factors included (1) the Aug Euro-Zone unemployment rate holding at a 12-year high of 10.0% for the fifth consecutive month, its highest level in 12 years, which was euro-negative, (2) the Aug 10 FOMC meeting minutes in which policy makers signaled no plans to resume large-scale asset purchases, and (3) an increase in the safe-haven demand for the dollar after the FDIC reported that US "problem" banks rose to 829 at the end of Q2, up +7% from 775 at the end of Q1. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the stock market rallied, (2) strength in the yen on speculation the action taken on Monday by the BOJ and the Japanese government to halt the yen's strength and boost economic growth will be insufficient, and (3) eu ro-positive comments from Standard & Poor's that the risk of a renewed recession in Europe is "remote."

•   October crude oil prices this morning are trading up +64 cents a barrel and October gasoline is +1.71 cents per gallon. Oct crude oil prices yesterday tumbled after mid-morning and closed down -$2.78 a barrel. Oct gasoline closed lower by -5.04 cents per gallon. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in the Aug Chicago purchasing managers index which fell to its lowest level in 9 months and signals the economic recovery and energy demand may be cooling, and (2) the outlook for weekly US crude supplies to increase when the DOE releases its inventory report on Wed. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) the better-than-expected Aug US consumer confidence, (3) the larger-than-expected increase in home prices in the Jun S&P Case-Shiller home price index, and (4) the prediction from DnB Nor ASA that crude oil prices will be supported at $70 a barrel for another year as the cost of oil production in deeper water rises and fears of a double-dip recession ease. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report are for crude oil stockpiles to rise +1.3 million bbl, gasoline supplies to fall -375,000 bbl, distillate inventories to gain 1.1 million bbl and the refinery capacity rate to remain unchanged at 87.7%.

[setravis]

Crude Oil...
 
Crude is headed for a test of primary support at $70. Twiggs Momentum (63-day) oscillating around zero indicates uncertainty. Failure of support would offer a target of $60/barrel*, while recovery above $80 would signal an advance to $90.

Target calculation: 70 - ( 80 - 70 ) = 60