Session of 01/19/2007

[David Randolph]

Let's start looking for those 3 red hot stocks to buy for short term purposes. Give me your suggestions (by replying this thread with the symbol and additional info if you want - you need to be logged in to write) that I'll make a 3 minute video analysis on them.

Thanks for your participation

[dcrlin]

MCRI  and   NDN.  Thanks.

[stockslover]

DROOY Please

[David Randolph]

MCRI, NDN and DROOY, thanks

In the future we'll accept just one suggestion per member, but since this is just starting I'll take whatever you give me

I see there's a problem with the permissions on this Board, and only Premium Members are allowed to write so far. I've called Ramsburg to change the permissions (since this is still just experimental it will be open for everyone), but since he was up all night setting the new Portfolio up he doesn't answer the phone Monday it will be fine.

[realcoolhead]

David, I know I am in minority, but I am against the idea of opening a new short-term oriented portfolio.

You have already spent considerable time managing the main portfolio. At least more than three times you expressed that “you are not feeling well” or “you are tired”. I feel this new portfolio (naturally much more intense) will add further strain on your time and energy, hinder your judgments and eventually burn you out (again).

A lot of people want you to repeat the performance in 2005. That will certainly be very nice of course. Yet as you said “you are lucky in 2005”, and if you take off that “AMRE.OB” which returned more than 1200%, the result will be much less spectacular albeit still very decent. (I did some analysis last May before I joined 3SOF: the average return on all picks by then was 10.27%, but if you take AMRE.OB away, the average drops to 4.73%. If you do a very unscientific extrapolation, the total return to date would be 112% instead of 242%, which is still more than 40% annual return!) My point is that people have to be realistic and keep their expectation in check. Even if we “only” grow 30% every year (somewhere I saw that figure in one of your message on your long-term oriented approach), you can make almost 200-fold on you money in 20 years!

Instead of opening a volatile portfolio, I actually suggest that you expand the main portfolio to include 25 stocks and make each pick 4% of the portfolio. Yesterday when NASDAQ dropped 36 points, many sectors actually gained (when I look at my 401K account, I actually saw marginal gain yesterday). By increasing the number of stocks to 25, you can diversify a little bit more. And by paying attention to include stocks from more different sectors, you can reduce the volatility of the portfolio. Someone might think it is going to be like an uninteresting mutual fund, but a 25-stock portfolio is still a very narrow portfolio and a 30% annual return is still not medioc at all!

Anyway, I’d like to see you stick to the gun, “stay the course” (sounds like Mr. Bush … ) and don’t get discouraged by short-term setback. I also like to see you more relaxed, maybe spend more time away from the market (you really don’t have to update every pick every day, especially for those you don’t have much to say on that day). As I said before, the quality of your buy/sell decision depends on the freshness of you mind. Come to think about it, I am like 10-year older than you, if I am not hurry, why you?

[David Randolph]

Hmmm, it looks like AussieTrader's suggestion is gone and I can't remember the ticker ... he's been away from US stocks, what a pity. Well, I know he'll be back

Thanks for the great post realcoolhead, but this isn't the place to talk about those issues, perhaps the "Long Term vs Short Term" thread on the Members Board?

Anyway, I agree with most of what you say, but you have to understand that you're a minority, most people don't have the capital to spread it through 25 different holdings.

See ya, and don't worry, I'll be here for the long term

[David Randolph]

3 minute look on MCRI:

<a href="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1305325342410123833&amp;hl=en" target="_blank">http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1305325342410123833&amp;hl=en</a>

Interesting, but volume is too low. NDN next.

[pompano]

EXCS.OB

[David Randolph]

3 minute look for NDN:

<a href="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1130803136233268051&amp;hl=en" target="_blank">http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1130803136233268051&amp;hl=en</a>

It opened with a big gap up, volume is very strong for this time of the day. I don't like to see a very big gap up after a 20% rise in just 7 days on a $1 B plus market cap company. It looks like the open was a short term top.

Thanks and good luck

[pompano]

Oh Crap, David, check the blocks going thru on EXCS.OB.  WOWAZ!!!

[David Randolph]

3 minute look on DROOY:

<a href="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1516622433225901965&amp;hl=en" target="_blank">http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1516622433225901965&amp;hl=en</a>

DROOY shows a bearish trend, oversold now, may bounce but there's a lot of overhead resistance. Fundamentals suck too. Good luck anyway.

[dnickers]

STXN - Thanks David!

[David Randolph]

EXCS.OB 3 minute look:

<a href="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=8953181974086944463&amp;hl=en" target="_blank">http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=8953181974086944463&amp;hl=en</a>

We have a winner, EXCS.OB was just bought for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Risky play because we don't have all the information (we can never have), but the ingredients are there for a huge run up (already up 128% as we speak).

If the market cap numbers and the news are correct, this penny stock may fly another 100% or more. We'll dig some more, but I'm in at $0.062.

I see now the current market cap is $1.46 M. I estimate December sales at $455,000. For 12 months that would be $5.4 M. To have a forward revenue multiple of 1 it should rise to $0.22 (not considering growth or dilution, and both will certainly happen).

Anyway, I have to dig further, let's see how this plays out until the end of the session.

Bring me more, I don't want to be distracted looking at the quotes

[pompano]

Thats what I'm talking about baby.    Thanks David.

[dnickers]

Hi David - I know I already posted one, but if you're looking for more, what do you think of NIHK.OB?
Derek