Session of 02/21/2007

[David Randolph]

Good morning

I've numbered the Stocks Covered List, 245 stocks covered so far!

That rating with colors issue will give me a lot of work because I need to watch/read each analysis again to do it ... I don't know where I'll find out time to do it, but don't worry, I will, it is important for the future.

I'm not planning to sell any of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio holdings today.

Actually I won't be here probably until 10 AM, because yesterday I broke my bicycle so I'll walk for a coffee at the village

Feel free to request analysis or post comments, thank you for your participation

[la-onda]

hi david,
I have asked you yesterday already about CRAY?

tia
O.

[spiritgate]

AMNT please!

[David Randolph]

Before I start today's work, I want to explain why my stance is negative on most small caps (even more so on OTCBB traded stocks). Because, indeed, most of them go down over the long term, even in bull markets. They don't count to the market averages. The S&P500 can, and does have, a long term average annual 8% return, but that excludes all small and micro caps.

The stock market exists not to make shareholder's money, it exists for companies to be financed, grow, create jobs and pay more taxes.

However, some companies, some small and micro cap companies, work for shareholder's benefit (those that don't dilute their value) and do rise a lot over time. Finding this type of companies and a method to recognize them is what this message board is all about.

CRAY and AMNT next

[TraderStar]

Actually I won't be here probably until 10 AM, because yesterday I broke my bicycle so I'll walk for a coffee at the village

Coffee in the Village sounds awesome .. can we come too??
Where is the village ... Spain? Portugal? Czechoslovvakia? Romanis??

[nica33]

Hi David, I asked yesterday for VDSI. Thanks!

[David Randolph]

Actually I won't be here probably until 10 AM, because yesterday I broke my bicycle so I'll walk for a coffee at the village

Coffee in the Village sounds awesome .. can we come too??
Where is the village ... Spain? Portugal? Czechoslovvakia? Romanis??

I was born in Cascais, Portugal, and live in a small village by the sea, Ericeira, near Cascais, near Lisbon. In fact I've never been in the US

I plan to take some time off and visit the US (maybe Orlando, go to Disney World with my kids, and, of course, New York) after I get to the $150,000 on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio 

I hope it doesn't take 10 years lol

[2bun]

GM David,could you have a look at PXLW,it had pop on news this morning.Thanks

[goodman666]

hi david
I have been several times to Portugal - I know Cascais also - very lovely country
with very friendly and warm-hearted people, good wine, nice food.

What will happen with CPNE today?

warm regards
goodman666

[nica33]

David, do you have JADE ?

[dcrlin]

I was born in Cascais, Portugal, and live in a small village by the sea, Ericeira, near Cascais, near Lisbon. In fact I've never been in the US

[/quote]

David,

Where did you learn English?  What's your real name?  You write very good in English.

dcrlin

[David Randolph]

hi david,
I have asked you yesterday already about CRAY?

tia
O.

CRAY, great stock, remember when we discussed it at $3 or $4? Arrgghh, these weak hands

Technically the stock is bullish, with the 50 days SMA above the 200 days. I see resistance at $14.36, if the stock is able to close above that with volume above average, it will be a very meaningful long term bullish breakout.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $428 M. The Company designs, develops, manufactures, markets and services high performance computer systems, commonly known as supercomputers.
• CRAY is a "diluter", that is, the share count is always rising and it rose 35% in 2006 as you can see here. That's bad.
• Balance sheet looks healthy, with $115 M in cash. $80 M in long term debt, though
• Revenues are growing, but still below 2003 level. The trailing price to sales ratio is 1.44
• The company is losing less money now and it was profitable in Q4 2006, with EPS of $0.32. Hmm, revenues in Q4 were way above trend, I wonder why and if it was a permanent motive or not. Let me check the news ...

UPDATE 1-Cray posts quarterly profit vs year-ago loss

Humm, those Q4 results were largely expected and they look like derived from a one time sale, because the company is forecasting 2007 sales at about $245 M and net income of about 5% of revenue, or $12.25 M. With 30.8 million shares outstanding that translates into full year EPS of $0.4 and a forward earnings multiple of 35.

I don't know the future for CRAY, but the stock looks overvalued to me, especially considering its habit of diluting shareholder's value.

But probably you know more and better than I do, good luck

[David Randolph]

hi david,
here are some pics i took in 1980! when i was 20 and travelling europe.
it is lagos portugal, the most southwesterly corner of europe. the old fortress was a youth hostel at the time . great beaches. reminded me of australia.
hope you enjoy them,
(sorry to be off topic)
maxi

Sorry rickjust, I had to remove your picks because they were slowing down the board a lot (it is slow enough). To insert images on the board you should use the .gif format, or else they'll be too "heavy".

But great photos!

hi david
I have been several times to Portugal - I know Cascais also - very lovely country
with very friendly and warm-hearted people, good wine, nice food.

What will happen with CPNE today?

warm regards
goodman666

Thanks, I guess you were lucky when visiting Portugal

I don't know what will happen to CPNE.OB today, but I think it should rise another 10 or 20%, given the news about to come out tomorrow.

David,

Where did you learn English?  What's your real name?  You write very good in English. 

dcrlin

Thanks dcrlin

I learned English ... well, mostly here, at www.3stocksonfire.com, and reading thousands of news, magazines and company reports. I wasn't particularly good at English at school, my speciality was mathematics. But, you know, English is the easiest language in the world (I just had to consult the dictionary to write this lol)

My real name is César José Mendonça de Freitas Borja. But I trade and feel like David Randolph

[rickjust]

hi,
sorry to slow down the board with those pics.
pmed still bullish,  still holding
maxi

[David Randolph]

AMNT please!

AMNT's chart is weird, what was that collapse in November 2006, stock split? I don't have a technical opinion the stock.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $137 M. The Company provides loan programs tailored to sub-prime borrowers with credit that does not meet conventional guidelines or who require non-conventional loan terms with respect to loan-to-value, debt ratio, cash-out or documentation.
• Balance sheet shows working capital is negative and there are just $2,242,096 in assets. That's too low for a $137 M market cap
• I see heavy dilution over the last couple of years
• Zero revenues in 2006 Something is wrong here ...
• Lost $1,088,569 in 2006

Ok, I think I'm starting to understand what's happening here. This company, AMNT, isn't the same as before, just using the same ticker symbol.

The current profile is:

«Amish Naturals, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of gourmet, natural, and kosher dried organic pasta and fiber-rich pasta made with organic durum wheat in the United States.»

Spiritgate, where do you get these stocks? AMNT.OB will go down 90% in 2007, no doubt about it. People buying don't have a clue what they're doing in my opinion.

But keep them coming, thanks