Session of 02/22/2007

[tokyopua]

Cortex ( COR ) is up sharply. I know it's biotech.  Firm got hit with FDA hold on dosing, but looks like that's about to be lifted.  Opinion, David?

Great chart, island reversal, Im in for a trade, thanks

[David Randolph]

CLRT?

Hi kpunarc, let's check CLRT.

Technically the stock is bullish, as it is trading above the 50 and 200 days moving averages. Trying to challenge the $1.82 recent high.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $116 M.The Company is an advanced oncology diagnostics technology and services company. Its mission is to combine innovative technologies, meaningful test results and world-class expertise to improve outcomes of patients suffering from cancer.
• Balance sheet is awful, with negative working capital of ($4.64 M)
• Revenues are growing nicely in 2006, quarter by quarter, but the company is still losing big bucks, at roughly ($4 M) a quarter

Well, this looks like one of those biotechnology companies I don't like it. At the rate they're losing money, they will have to dilute shareholder's value to keep those operations alive (since working capital is already negative).

Recent press releases look great, but over the short term, dilution is the only way out, and that will probably make the stock tank.

Can be wrong though, good luck

[Matix04]

Hey David, could you check out PRW?

Thanks

[David Randolph]

I've listened to CPNE's Roth presentation, nothing new there, but the company is exactly what I thought it was, a really aggressive money making machine

Sure, there's this dip today because numbers for Q4 were a bit on the light side, but still, there's no better value out there that I can see, and CPNE.OB has a bright future ahead.

[webby67]

David:
I thought the CPNE presentation was EXCELLENT. I probably wasnt as aware of all aspects of this story as you. So I found the entire discussion of the various parts of the CPNE biz and the interrelationships of the marketing, fulfillment, data collection, and lead generation operations as very very revealing. Liked the presentation a lot 

Makes me more comfortable in holding on during this difficult morning.

[tocitygirl]

Hi david,

What do you think of PFSW?  Will it pass 1.23 in short term?  Thanks

[zgakira]

chcg.ob on fire

[kpunarc]

CLRT?

Hi kpunarc, let's check CLRT.

Technically the stock is bullish, as it is trading above the 50 and 200 days moving averages. Trying to challenge the $1.82 recent high.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $116 M.The Company is an advanced oncology diagnostics technology and services company. Its mission is to combine innovative technologies, meaningful test results and world-class expertise to improve outcomes of patients suffering from cancer.
• Balance sheet is awful, with negative working capital of ($4.64 M)
• Revenues are growing nicely in 2006, quarter by quarter, but the company is still losing big bucks, at roughly ($4 M) a quarter

Well, this looks like one of those biotechnology companies I don't like it. At the rate they're losing money, they will have to dilute shareholder's value to keep those operations alive (since working capital is already negative).

Recent press releases look great, but over the short term, dilution is the only way out, and that will probably make the stock tank.

Can be wrong though, good luck

Sorry about that...i didn't check what kinda company it was. I appreciate you still doing the analysis.

-quick question...how many stocks can a user request per day...i have lis of about 10 incredibly bullish stocks to feed through the 3sof machine...

[David Randolph]

I'm holding CPNE as well for the moment, will watch it today. 

Not sure if I suggested this earlier, but what about AWNE?

The board is very slow today .. at least for me .. takes a few minutes for anything new to load...

Yes, terribly slow, the server is not handling so many people refreshing pages at the same time. Ramsburg is coming back from vacations today, I'm sure he'll find a way to fix this annoying issue.

AWNE is a very recent stock on the market, and it is trading at a new all time high today, so, technically, it's bullish.

Let's see what we have on the fundamental front:

• Market cap is $58.5 M. The Company is engaged in the business of manufacturing, marketing and licensing medium sized wind turbines to wind farm developers in North America.
• Balance sheet shows negative working capital. Not good
• No revenues

AWNE.OB is a 3 employee company without any operations, it can't possibly be worth $58.5 M. Given the weak balance sheet I see the current rally as a pump and sell all the way down, EVCC.OB style.

[Jim897]

Hi David,

I'm new to this board.  I aked about EXM earlier.  Can you tell me anything?  Also, why did you sell XING earlier?

Jim

[David Randolph]

-quick question...how many stocks can a user request per day...i have lis of about 10 incredibly bullish stocks to feed through the 3sof machine...

Lol. Well, you can request the amount of analysis you like, but you know, my daily limit is about 20 analysis (it is physically impossible to do more), and lately I've been doing just about 10 each day, so ... well, I pick some to do on a random basis (usually I just start from the first requests to the last ones), but many are missed.

Someday all stocks will be covered already and the job of just updating previous analysis will be easier. It will be fun. It's fun already. Thanks for your participation

[David Randolph]

Hi David,

I'm new to this board.  I aked about EXM earlier.  Can you tell me anything?  Also, why did you sell XING earlier?

Jim

Hi Jim, welcome to 3 Stocks

Well, I sold XING with a 27% on the Main Portfolio, due to this:

(I guess nobody will mind if I share the reasons on the free area, we already got our profit)

Thanks for clearing that up for me, David. Being a newbie, I'm probably more prone to panic and misinterpretation of the trend-- I'll keep my finger off the sell button. I feel very fortunate to receive this feedback from somebody with your level of experience and insight! 

Thanks jmccar2

I had trouble sleeping today, thinking about XING. Let me explain:

On May, 10, 2006, DKR Capital Partners had the following:



On November 13, 2006, the following:



Hey, those convertible bonds increased from 40 million to 66 million

On February 14, 2007, the following:



They sold a big chunk of their shares into the market, but it seems that when they convert and sell, there's always more to be converted.

Then, on a registration file issued on January 3, 2007, I read this:

«Common Stock Outstanding as of December 7, 2006: 29,428,978 shares*

* The outstanding number of shares assumes that there has been no exercise of any of our warrants which were issued and outstanding as of December 7, 2006.»

With full dilution, the share count will rise to 36.63 million shares issued and outstanding, and this has to be the number used to calculate EPS on a fully diluted basis. Dutton Associates, on its coverage of the stock, didn't consider this or any change in the number of shares outstanding. If Dutton had considered the fully diluted number of shares, their estimate would then be $2.03 EPS, that is, 24% less than the $2.53 number.

Assuming total conversion of warrants and convertible bonds (although, it seems there's no control from the part of shareholders over this number, since it rose from 40,000,000 to 66,000,000 with no apparent reason) and frankly I don't like the situation, the current market cap would then be 36.63 M*$19.15 = $701 M, much higher than the $400 M the Fool analyst talked about in his February 13th, 2007 article:

• Qiao Xing Universal Telephone: A Chinese Nokia in the Making?
at Motley Fool (Tue, Feb 13)

I say there's a reason why XING has remained "undervalued" for so long. The reason is the company has been and will continue to dilute shareholder's value. I think there's something hidden about convertible stuff and others, that's why they don't file form 10 with the SEC.

I attribute the current rally to three factors:

- Dutton Coverage talking about EPS of $2.53 for 2007;
- The Fool's article comparing XING with Nokia;
- Technical motives.

The first two are misleading in my opinion, and the third is derived from the first two, so, also misleading.

I have a 27.75% profit on XING and I've lost trust in the company.

The trading plan for XING is: take profits!

I won't consider buying it again, at least not until they file a proper form 10 with the SEC. Good luck to all that will continue holding

[zgakira]

chcg.ob up 11% today.


news:

Maxim Group Starts China 3C Group (CHCG) at Buy
02-22-2007 08:28:11 AM

 
Maxim Group initiates coverage on China 3C Group (OTCBB: CHCG) with a Buy rating and $10 price target. Analyst Albert Lee said, "We believe that China 3C shares provide a ground floor opportunity to invest in a rapidly growing, under-perceived China-based retailer of 3C-related products (communication, computer, and consumer electronics). Founded originally as a distributor, the company has quickly and successfully transformed itself into an operator of over 800 independent retail stores across Eastern China, the country's fastest growing region that represents over 11% of the entire population and roughly 25% of total GDP.

[bcsengrng]

Hello David,

How can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock?

For instance....... if ACY were optionable I could have looked up the amount of PUT volume on it before I bought it (at $20.90 :0( ) and would have seen a large "short" volume on it and waited - is this correct?
If so, then how can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock? All the tech., fund. and financial data and news on ACY were/are still good. Granted, it was at a 2-5 yr. high but financial trend is strong. So why is this stock dropping-being overbought and now being oversold?

[tokyopua]

Cortex ( COR ) is up sharply. I know it's biotech.  Firm got hit with FDA hold on dosing, but looks like that's about to be lifted.  Opinion, David?

Great chart, island reversal, Im in for a trade, thanks

Bam, COR breaking out!

Not a long term investment, they seem to dillute a lot unless they made some acquisition, but a nice technical setup it seems.