I'm undecided if owning gold at this stage is an opportunity or a risk.
I've been very undecided about that, as well.
I very much have like the chart of AUY, but not many others. They either looked lousy, like GG and NEM, or wimpy, like GOLD, AEM and RGLD, to mention a few, which have every opportunity to break out on the rally in the POG, but didn't.
My upside targets of 14.94 and 15.15 in AUY ended up getting MADE without me (I sold at 13.96), so in hindsight, I should have stuck with it, but the action in other sector-related stocks put me off it.
I'm still undecided, because stocks like RGLD still have a chance of a Bullish Inverse H&S breakout, and the GLD, although a bit bloodied after last week, is back-testing its January 23 breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple), after morphing into a Rising Channel (pattern in blue) after the breakout.
The top of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern came in on Friday at 63.33
. The low was 63.34
, so players know exactly
where that support is, and they stepped in and bought. Not with any conviction, though, since the GLD closed near its low of the day, but as the chart stands, Friday's low was a successful re-test of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.
That close near the low of the candle is alright, given the fact that players probably wanted to get flat and give it a think over at the weekend, but at a minimum, I'd want to see the Kumo (Cloud), or the bottom of the Rising Channel, hold next week, as support. The bottom of the channel comes in on Monday, March 5 at 62.202, and rises 0.062 each day.
BTW, the conventional wisdom about the POG not
being a "safe haven during a time a crisis" last week seems to be that players were selling it to get out of a jam on the yen carry trade, Other excuses for the selloff in gold were offered, like the Chinese not being interest in buying it if there is much more trouble in their market, etc.
Conventional wisdom never has made me any money, that I can remember, nor have excuses. Charts holding support has
made me money, so that's what I'll be watching next week.
Congratulations and applause for all of your hard work, David. I hope that you're getting a good rest this weekend. I chuckled at your remark about the emotions of the market last week.
"If we can keep our heads when all around us are losing theirs, I think that we should try to be as passionate about the stock market as they are."
- a Melf bastardization of Rudyard Kipling's "IF-"