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Author Topic: GIGM  (Read 36206 times)
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David Randolph
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« on: March 15, 2007, 05:36:45 AM »

I've made several analysis on GIGM but none come up as evidently saying GIGM is a long term buy as the one I did yesterday:

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I gave it a 9 out of 10 and an estimated long term return of 26% a year. This is because GIGM's business is a high margin business, and the way revenues are growing ... not to mention the potential of their Chinese games that still aren't producing revenues. Even my brother plays Mahjong now (his girlfriend is Chinese).

Moreover, GIGM's business is, in my view, independent of the economic cycle, which adds a feel of safety to the investment.

On Tuesday there were news out that weren't reflected on my analysis (my fundamental service wasn't updated with the latest news), showing revenues and EPS for full year 2006 were in fact better than expected and considered in my analysis:

GigaMedia 2006 Net Profit up 386% to US$31 Million
PR Newswire (Tue, Mar 13)

Net profit margin for the 4th quarter was an incredible 32.9% (on my long term estimate I'm considering just 20% for net profit margin).

I have no doubts GIGM is a spectacular long term holding and I want it on the Main for the very long term. What I'll do is just compare actual results with my estimates, and if on average the company keeps on track, I'll continue holding it over the years.

Trading Plan:


Buy GIGM, 6.66% of capital as always.


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« Last Edit: March 28, 2008, 12:45:43 PM by setravis » Logged

la-onda
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« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2007, 07:58:54 AM »

GIGM again  Grin Cheesy

fyi:
GigaMedia "buy," target price raised
Thursday, March 15, 2007 10:41:55 PM ET
Roth Capital
NEW YORK, March 15 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Roth Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on GigaMedia (ticker: GIGM). The target price has been raised from $15 to $17.


also check the GIGM link from our free board:
http://www.3stocksonfire.com/trading/index.php?topic=1441.390

cheers
Oliver
« Last Edit: March 15, 2007, 08:01:48 AM by la-onda » Logged


nicknite20
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« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2007, 08:21:37 AM »

David,
Very excited to see GIGM added to the main..

As ive mentioned before..this is one of my largest holding & am as excited about the long term prospects as you are..
Nick
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David Randolph
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« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2007, 06:18:45 AM »

GIGM again  Grin Cheesy

fyi:
GigaMedia "buy," target price raised
Thursday, March 15, 2007 10:41:55 PM ET
Roth Capital
NEW YORK, March 15 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Roth Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on GigaMedia (ticker: GIGM). The target price has been raised from $15 to $17.


also check the GIGM link from our free board:
http://www.3stocksonfire.com/trading/index.php?topic=1441.390

cheers
Oliver

Hi La-onda, as usually when there's an upgrade, stock's go down on that day Smiley

David,
Very excited to see GIGM added to the main..

As ive mentioned before..this is one of my largest holding & am as excited about the long term prospects as you are..
Nick

Thanks for your message Nick, we'll be able to exchange information about GIGM on this thread.

There's some information on this Fool's article:

GigaMedia's Strong Hand

Revenues from continuing operations rose 113% in 2006 from a year ago and our long term estimate looks for just 30% average annual revenue growth for the next 10 years.

I'll continue holding GIGM.


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David Randolph
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2007, 07:01:47 AM »

www.3stocksonfire.com has been experiencing technical problems, so I need to do these updates fast to send the daily newsletter.

Nothing new happened on GIGM at Friday's session, I'll keep holding the stock.


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David Randolph
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2007, 04:20:28 AM »

What is interesting about this GIGM investment is that I'm only calling for 30% average annual revenue growth for the next 10 year period, but the company is growing a lot faster than that:

«Consolidated revenues from continuing operations climbed 155 percent to US$30.1 million from US$11.8 million in 2005 and grew by 23 percent from the previous quarter.»

«"GigaMedia's net profit grew over four times in 2006, a great year by any standard," stated Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. "And our record fourth- quarter operating results and recent strategic developments point to an even stronger 2007.

«"Our excellent financial results in 2006 tell only half the story: perhaps more important, 2006 was a year of key strategic accomplishments," stated CEO Arthur Wang. "We now have built by organic investment a leading pan-European online entertainment brand -- and by acquisition, an enormous pan-Asian online game platform with over 50 million registered users."

"We are seeing but the early returns from our investments and strategic steps to build a dominant online entertainment business," explained CEO Arthur Wang. "As such, we are looking to deliver tremendous shareholder value in 2007 and beyond."»

I'll keep holding GIGM.


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yukiii
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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2007, 05:31:54 PM »

Sold 1/2 today thanks David
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David Randolph
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2007, 05:39:22 AM »

Sold 1/2 today thanks David

You're welcome yukiii Smiley

GIGM is growing a lot faster that my estimate, at least for now. I just need 30% average annual revenue growth and revenues from continuing operations grew 155% in 2006, and 23% from Q3 to Q4 2006 Shocked

On my video analysis I said I was expecting about 17% net profit margin for 2007 and 20% over the long term, but the company already had a net profit margin of 32.89% in Q4 Shocked

Perhaps, since yukiii sold half of his position, GIGM will have a short term pullback, I don't know about that, but fundamentals tell me GIGM only has one way to go: up, up and away !


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« Last Edit: March 21, 2007, 05:41:12 AM by David Randolph » Logged

David Randolph
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« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2007, 04:55:09 AM »

GIGM is trouncing my expectations by a wide margin, as revenue growth is accelerating. That is expanding net profit margin from my expectation of 17% to more than 32%. This substantially improves my long term estimates for GIGM, which were awesome already.

Therefore I've decided to buy GIGM also for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, as I believe it is one of the two stocks with the most potential in the Main Portfolio.

The chart says there can be a pullback as the stock closed just a bit below its 7 year high of $13.79, but that's not an input in my decision making process. I'm on the path to long term investing, using long term analytical tools.

I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.


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David Randolph
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2007, 04:38:38 AM »

When something like the following starts getting traction:

«The sequential quarterly operating margin improvement was driven by a sharp pick-up and significant margin expansion in the Asian online games business in the fourth quarter.»

... we know the best is yet to come.

I'll continue holding GIGM.


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sfhappyfish88
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« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2007, 10:09:05 AM »

Do we still have the daily discussion session today? I can't find it.  Huh
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David Randolph
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« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2007, 06:47:36 AM »

Do we still have the daily discussion session today? I can't find it.  Huh

Sorry sfhappyfish88, I wasn't able to start a new thread on Friday in the Stock Talking Board, but there was one open.

As for GIGM, the stock was able to close at a new 7 year high of $13.95, above the "important" technical resistance of $13.79, which probably will now act as support (the all time high was $91 in 2000).

We're not the only ones loving GIGM, also the Fool's community enjoys it a lot, with a 40% average annual EPS growth estimate for the next 5 years: 5 More Top Growth Stocks

As for analysts in general, look how they have been raising estimates:



Now they're estimating $0.61 for the full year 2007, but the company already made $0.51 in 2006 and $0.17 EPS for the fourth quarter. If it just maintains the $0.17 rhythm per quarter, it will make $0.68 for the full year, and everybody, including the company's management, expects strong growth, so clearly those 2007 estimates need to rise some more or the company will easily beat them by a wide margin.

I'll keep holding GIGM. 


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la-onda
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2007, 07:13:28 AM »

long and strong  Evil Evil

FYI:
Transcript of GigaMedia 4Q and Full-Year 2006 Financial Results (15 slides) :
http://www.gigamedia.com.tw/downloads/conference/4Q06%20Script-Final.pdf

let me quote:

GIGM business unit performance:

Gaming Software Business - CESL

The business unit again delivered all-time highs in revenues and net income.
During the fourth quarter, the business unit generated $19.8 million in revenues, representing 183 percent year-over-year growth and 34 percent growth sequentially. Operating income increased 155 percent from the same period in 2005 and 29 percent sequentially; Operating income margin decreased slightly to 30.3 percent from 31.6 percent in the previous quarter due to increased selling and marketing expenses; net income grew to $5.9 million, a 219 percent improvement year-overyear or 30 percent growth sequentially.
Let me quickly break this down further into results for our poker
software business and our traditional gaming software business.
Our poker business again achieved record results. Revenues from our poker software products were $12.9 million, up 54 percent sequentially.
Poker revenues represented 65 percent of CESL’s total revenues. This
growth was largely driven by the increase in the number of poker players on our platform. Approximately 90,000 active depositing realmoney customers played Everest Poker during the fourth quarter, up 47 percent sequentially. And during the quarter, approximately 43,000 new depositing real-money players were added. Everest Poker user and revenue growth has been driven by efficient, targeted marketing and brand-building initiatives, including high-profile
poker tournaments. During the fourth quarter our licensee kicked off another exciting poker tour – the Everest Poker Nordic Summit, which targets Scandinavian players. Everest also launched its biggest event ever in late December – Avalanche, a $1 million poker tournament that runs through September. Everest and Avalanche are off to a flying start in 2007, positioning our poker software business for what looks to be another great year.

The traditional gaming software business also delivered strong results.
Third-quarter revenues from the traditional gaming software business
were $6.9 million. This represented a 44 percent increase year-overyear
and 8 percent sequential growth. In sum, this business unit continues to scale up rapidly, we believe that there is plenty of growth potential from organic expansion in our target markets and we are confident in our ability to compete successfully in these markets.

Asian Online Games Business – FunTown

FunTown accelerated its growth momentum in the fourth quarter,
delivering sharply improved performance. During the period we
continued to execute our strategy to expand our game offerings to
attract new gamers and increase gamer spending through offering an
increased selection of in-game virtual items, and we supported this with
strong marketing initiatives in both the third and the fourth quarter of
2006 to strengthen our brand. As a result of these initiatives, we
accelerated the momentum we started to generate in the third quarter
in our top-line, and experienced a significant improvement in our fourthquarter
operating margin. Revenues in the period increased 16 percent sequentially. Operating margin increased to 35 percent from 27 percent in the previous quarter pushing up net income 48 percent sequentially. EBITDA margin was a
healthy 44 percent. Let me briefly go over a few of the key initiatives in the period. During the fourth quarter we continued strong marketing initiatives which begun in the previous quarter, which included the launch of a large
mass media campaign with television commercials in Taiwan focused
on our leading MahJong offering and traditional board games.
On the product side we continued our program of monthly releases of
new virtual items. As a result, monthly revenue per active paying
account increased 20 percent sequentially to $16.6 in the fourth
quarter. In addition, our newly licensed advanced casual game Tales Runner
continued to increase in popularity. It is now one of the most popular
online causal games in Hong Kong and is gaining traction in Taiwan.
Tales Runner was a meaningful contributor of FunTown’s fourth quarter revenues and we expect its contributions to increase in the first quarter. We also expect to launch two to three newly licensed games in 2007 to further enhance our product offerings.
During the fourth quarter in 2006, we also announced a number of
strategic growth initiatives in the Asian online game sector. Let me
take a moment to review each of these.

First, Hellgate: London. The global launch of Hellgate: London is scheduled for the second half of 2007. We showcased Hellgate: London at last month’s Taipei game show which attracted tens of thousands of gamers. Given the extraordinary feedback we have received, we expect the addition of Hellgate: London to significantly increase our revenues and profitability.

Second, our China platform, T2CN. As stated in our release today, we will begin equity accounting for T2CN in the first quarter. We are in very early stages of building this growth platform and expect near term financial contributions to be relatively modest. However, our focus on sports, our large and already established player-base and our access to a deep pipeline of games through our relationship with Korean developer and operator CJ Internet all position us to deliver significant long-term growth.

Third, our Southeast Asian platform, investment in Infocomm Asia. As this investment will be cost accounted for, we do not expect any immediate direct financial contributions. However, Infocomm Asia further broadens our already unmatched regional footprint, giving us a strong position to secure regional licenses to top online games. We are also well-positioned to develop regional marketing relationships with leading international brands and secure perational leverage through our regional footprint.

Finally, a quick review of our Broadband ISP Business
Our legacy broadband ISP business delivered another stable quarter.
Increased revenues on the corporate side of the business helped offset
a slight revenue decline on the consumer side of the business, and we
continued strict cost and expense control measures. As a result, we
posted revenue of $5 million and operating income of $1.3 million for the period. We expect the relative contributions of our ISP business to our consolidated financials to continue to decline. Specifically, in the first quarter of 2007, we expect a decline in revenues and decreased profitability in the legacy ISP business as part of the service fees we receive in relation to the sale of our ADSL business will end in the quarter. This is in line with our ongoing strategy of shifting resources away from this legacy business.

To summarize, in 2006 we laid the foundation for a powerful online entertainment platform. We delivered tremendous growth in our gaming
software business, especially in the poker business, and added another high-margin growth engine, our Asian online games business. We are thrilled with where we are now, excited about the opportunities and growth prospects in front of us, and confident in our ability to execute and continue to deliver. 2007 promises to be a very exciting year, and we look forward to sharing it with you as we continue to grow shareholder value.


I am also thrilled  Evil
cheers from SG
Oliver
« Last Edit: March 25, 2007, 07:26:10 AM by la-onda » Logged


David Randolph
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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2007, 01:23:05 AM »

And the market is responding la-onda, with GIGM closing at a new 7 year high yesterday. The stock keeps looking at recent financial performance and ahead:

«"We are seeing but the early returns from our investments and strategic steps to build a dominant online entertainment business," explained CEO Arthur Wang. "As such, we are looking to deliver tremendous shareholder value in 2007 and beyond."»

I'll keep holding GIGM.


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David Randolph
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« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2007, 03:35:18 AM »

Let's consider the next sentence from the 4th quarter earnings release:

«"GigaMedia's net profit grew over four times in 2006, a great year by any standard," stated Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. "And our record fourth- quarter operating results and recent strategic developments point to an even stronger 2007."»

An even stronger 2007? Does this mean that net profit will grow by more that 4 times in 2007 in comparison to 2006? Not impossible.

GIGM had net income of $30.8 M in 2006. If this number quadruples it will have net income of $123.2 M.

Now, GIGM is a $714 M market cap, so if this happens the forward earnings multiple would then be 5.8. But probably the CEO didn't mean what I'm seeing, did he?

Anyway, no doubt the business is growing by leaps and bounds, I'll keep holding GIGM.


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